Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 37.352762 40.677739 44.368840 48.812664 54.076540 60.190979 67.951221
2025-07-27 33.861791 38.499153 44.065473 51.409341 61.128357 74.020533 93.361855
2025-08-03 31.318420 36.569966 43.195303 52.495294 65.837852 85.512341 119.827342
2025-08-10 29.176953 34.722121 41.975305 52.645735 68.974763 95.347381 148.509074
2025-08-17 26.977017 32.506571 39.915473 51.171777 69.210849 100.428018 171.465091
2025-08-24 25.159194 30.612351 38.058818 49.669802 69.005169 104.541715 195.293827
2025-08-31 24.658086 30.445540 38.580393 51.790311 75.201122 122.926019 275.538528
2025-09-07 23.322048 28.998310 37.089080 50.493641 75.017806 127.900966 322.327738
2025-09-14 22.202920 27.781196 35.833428 49.422149 75.037660 133.392172 383.130698
2025-09-21 20.879311 26.194579 33.908381 47.029057 72.085953 130.588440 400.183124
2025-09-28 20.170111 25.460989 33.235628 46.706928 73.243831 139.063739 510.064503
2025-10-05 20.213104 25.824948 34.277027 49.480576 81.437853 172.230312 1111.922804
2025-10-12 19.240626 24.752451 33.172745 48.657073 82.524350 187.835790 2269.961574
2025-10-19 18.963615 24.731557 33.797664 51.242752 92.801514 253.318015 NaN
2025-10-26 18.445193 24.289630 33.665785 52.322579 99.836473 323.350812 NaN
2025-11-02 17.830951 23.649206 33.126588 52.472174 104.425287 397.047097 NaN
2025-11-09 17.033122 22.666698 31.909223 51.006440 103.646118 430.673621 NaN
2025-11-16 16.300720 21.750747 30.744224 49.512676 102.379353 460.798797 NaN
2025-11-23 16.136476 21.740555 31.183614 51.621543 114.134295 744.103522 NaN
2025-11-30 15.531140 20.974549 30.194283 50.332032 113.262582 832.543928 NaN
2025-12-07 14.998640 20.305047 29.340925 49.266359 112.967858 957.277311 NaN
2025-12-14 14.332168 19.388496 27.984673 46.885941 106.896569 865.958771 NaN
2025-12-21 13.966839 18.958940 27.509681 46.565484 109.069446 1110.043425 NaN